Tremblay 10/95: Appendix A

Appendix A

The Bagley(1994) Demographic Data Based on Sexual Orientation

The debate around the percentage of the population which would be gay, lesbian, or bisexual has existed for decades, especially since Kinsey(1948) estimated that about 10% of males had been predominantly homosexually active for a period of three years between the ages of 16 and 55(84:651). Other studies have also been done, producing a range of estimates for homosexual, gay, bisexual males ranging from 1% to 17%. Many questions, however, have been asked about definitions(85,86), some writers even noting that "gay" males (a socially constructed identification, but the word is often used as a synonym for male homosexual) form a subset of the homosexual male population(85:42), and the same concept was articulated in a comprehensive manner by Gilbert Herdt in 1992(87). Great problems also exist with respect to identifying, for study purposes, males who are bisexual. Most of these males would be in primary heterosexual relationships and are highly closeted for many reasons.

Diamond (1993) noted many of these problems and summarized the available demographic research results. On the basis of studies done in the recent past (excluding the Kinsey studies), he arrived at the "usable 'round' figure" of 5.5% "for those adult [males] who regularly engage in or have since adolescence at least once engaged in same-sex activities..."(88:306) However, most of the studies yielding the estimate were either obtained from random dialling telephone surveys, or from face-to-face interviews using random samples. Neither method will produce accurate figures, and the latter method was used in the most recent American demographic study which produced the widely reported 2.8% estimate for males who are homosexual.

The study, Sex in America: A Definitive Study(1994), reported that 2.7% of males had same-gender sex in the past year, and that 7.1% had same-gender sex since puberty. The great caveat related to this study, however, was noted by one of its authors, Stuart Michaels, in Time magazine's cover story about the study. "The biggest hot button, he says, is homosexuality. This is a stigmatized group. There is probably a lot more homosexual activity going on than we could get people to talk about."(89:50)

Homosexuality is still a taboo subject, to the point that many GLB individuals fear losing their jobs, friends, and even their families if their homosexual orientation is known; or worse, given that only a little less than 50% of American states have decriminalized homosexual activity. In Canada, homosexual activity is not a crime, provided the ones engaged in homosexual activity do so in private, are of the legal age, and are not in authority over one of the individuals, if such a person is 14- to 17-years-old. Nonetheless, a significant number of homosexually active male Canadians would not want to reveal the "homosexual" part of their lives to most people. Included are individuals requesting such information as part of a random telephone survey, and those requesting the same information in face-to-face interviews. The fear of exposure is too great.

The Bagley et al.(1994) sample data was obtained by having the subjects answer all questions on a portable computer taken to their homes by a male approximately the same age as the respondent. After the computer was set up, and instructions given, it was emphasized that, after the subject began answering questions, help could not be offered. The reason given for this was that everyone involved with the study had to remain blind to all answers given. As a result of this, the subjects knew they would only be giving the requested information to a machine, with a highly convincing assurance that their anonymity was guaranteed.

The Bagley et al.(1994) study therefore eliminated some of the concealment problems, especially predictable when researchers are asking men if they have sexually interacted with children since the age of 18. Requesting such highly taboo sexual information from adult males by telephone, or in face-to-face interviews, would probably yield the non-existence of such men. Yet, given that about 15% of adult males and females report having been sexually abused as children, mostly by men, a significant number of men are sexually involved with children. An analysis of the information has yielded the estimate that about 2% of adult males have been (are) active pedophiles, and another 3% who would act accordingly if certain conditions were met. In the Bagley et al.(1994) study, 1.1% of young adult males (8/750) admitted to having had sex with children (4 with girls, 3 with boys, and 1 with both) since the age of 18(39), and this result leads to the following conclusion.

For demographic research based on sexual orientation, given that adult homosexual activity is still taboo, but to a lesser extent than is adult homosexual activity involving boys, the method to be used should be subjected to an important question. Would it produce a good estimate of the percentage of men who have sex with boys? If the answer is "NO!" because it can be predicted that a "0%" (or close to "0%") estimate will result, the method to be used will therefore produce underestimates for the percentage of males who are homosexually active with other adult males.

The supposedly "definitive study," Sex in America, produced an estimate of 2.8% for males who are currently homosexually active, with 7.1% reporting that they had same-gender since adolescence. Bagley(1994), however, by using the above described method, produced the following results:

4.3% of males (32/750) reported having "regular sex with person(s) of the same sex over 18."
4.9% of males (37/750) reported having "occasional adult gay sex encounters, but are mainly heterosexual."
2.0% of males (14/700) reported themselves to be "interested in having same-sex encounters with adult partners but never tried it."(40)25

For a number of data-based reasons presented in Appendix B of The Gay, Lesbian, and Bisexual Factor in the Youth Suicide Problem(107), it was estimated, on the basis of the Bagley(1994) data, that about 5% of 18- to 27-year-old males would be homosexual or predominantly homosexual, and that another 5% would be bisexual to the extent that they are occasionally homosexually active with other adult males but are predominantly heterosexually active.26 Some factors taken into consideration to produce the 5% / 5% estimate are:

Concealment is always a problem in all research work seeking to estimate the prevalence of socially taboo behaviours. Some males, even in their 20s, are not ready to even admit their homosexual desires/identity to themselves, much less to anyone else, including people doing surveys. Others will delete or deny such realities, no matter what method is used to request the information. Therefore, the "9.2%" would be an underestimate for the sample studied.
The fact that I have known some gay-identified males who have never had sex with a male, are only coming out to others around the age of 25, and are only becoming homosexually active at this age, yields the conclusion that the "9.2%" for gay/bisexual males is an underestimate. Some of the younger males in the sample (belonging to the 2% "interested" category) will eventually become homosexually active, adding to the 9.2% estimate.
The fact that the northern half of Calgary selected by Bagley et al.(1994) for the stratified random sampling process does not include the 20X20 block area known as the greater gay community area, yields the conclusion that the "9.2%" is an underestimate of homosexually active gay/bisexual males in Calgary. The Bagley et al.(1994) study only produced an estimate of homosexually active males living outside the Connaught/Beltline area where the percentage of gay males would be the highest.
The known migration of GLB people from rural areas to larger cities (such as Calgary) having visible gay communities, and from Calgary and other medium-size cities to the largest Canadian GLB centres existing in Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver (New York City and San Francisco being the American equivalents), yields the possibility that the Bagley(1994) "9.2%" may be an underestimate or an overestimate - depending on the numbers who have moved into Calgary, compared to those who have left. A possible overestimate, however, would be amply compensated by the underestimating effects of 1 to 3.

On the basis of the Bagley et al.(1994) sample data, it is now known that the recent studies producing 1%(90) to 3% estimates for gay males, or for males who are homosexually active, are seriously flawed. For the first time in North America, the magnitude of error in these percentages (commonly reported in the media, often on front pages of newspapers or as cover stories in magazines) can also be estimated. Random dialling telephone surveys, and random sampling surveys using face-to-face inter views, will produce "male homosexuality" underestimates ranging from about one-third to one-tenth of what actually exists, and such errors are scientifically unacceptable.

The Bagley et al.(1994) study has therefore set a desperately needed methodological standard in the field of demographic research based on sexual orientation. Special methods for collecting "homosexuality" information, such as the one described above, will continue to be mandatory for as long as our society retains its traditionally homophobic, homohating, and homo-punitive attributes.

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25 Nov 1995