Date: Tue, 29 Jul 1997 19:13:57 -1000 From: Rohter (by way of lambda@aloha.net (Martin Rice)) Subject: SA 128: Fall of Democrats -- Here comes the Right Aloha ahi ahi kakou. Following are more of Ira's notes, and the essay. This is the original "complete" essay. Note esp. Part II which outlines the creation of an umbrella organization. Unless such a coalition is created, the RR will hammer all candidates who do not adhere to opposing the Marriage Amendment. Social Moderates like Lingle and Harris and Cayetano will be under great pressure to shift their positions to appease the RR. Same for legislators such as Cynthia Thielen (R)and ..... Politicians go where the votes are. ************* Ira Rohter Professor of Political Science University of Hawai`i— Manoa 6/3/97 THE FALL OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY: HERE COMES THE RIGHT Early next winter, months before the 1998 elections, professional rightwing organizers from the Mainland will begin to arrive in Hawai`i. Out-of-state groups such as the Christian Coalition, the American Family Association, Focus on the Family, and Traditional Values Coalition intend to pour a lot of energy and money into passing the anti same-sex marriage Constitutional Amendment. Using the same-sex controversy as a beachhead, the Mainland pros' second job will be to defeat liberal Democratic legislators in 1998, replacing them with conservatives who will not only restrict gay rights, but act as advocates for other rightist social and economic views. These Mainland organizers, most of whom represent the Religious Right, will recruit conservative candidates with offers of Mainland-raised dollars and advice from professional polling and campaign experts. Working through the Republican Party, and anti-gay groups such as "Hawai`i's Future Today" headed by political heavyweights, and Mike Gabbard's more rabid homophobic organizations "Stop Promoting Homosexuality Now!" and "Alliance for Traditional Marriage," the Right will topple many liberal Democrats. Conservative Democrats will be spared or supported. House Judiciary Chair Terrance Tom, chief spear carrier for the anti same-sex marriage forces, will likely run with rightist backing for the Senate seat now held by moderate Mike McCartney. Like Newt Gingrich's minions in Congress a few years earlier, newly elected conservative legislators in Hawai`i will attack workers' rights, medical and social services for the poor, environmental regulations, abortion rights, public education, gay and lesbian civil rights, gun control laws, affirmative action, and Native Hawaiian land and water rights. It is now Hawai`i's turn to experience the wrath and organizing efforts of the Religious Right. We saw how the 1994 election reshaped the federal political landscape, as Newt Gingrich advanced his vague "Contract with America" themes into bills whose beneficiaries were primarily wealthy Republicans, big corporations, and extreme conservatives. Little noticed, however, was the fact that many state legislatures veered sharply to the right too. Republicans seized control of 16 state legislative chambers previously held by Democrats, and claimed 10 new governorships. As "People for the American Way" reported, In race after race at the state level, just as at the federal level, Religious Right organizations and leaders were credited with providing a significant boost to Republican candidates. The bills those newly elected candidates have helped move in state legislatures suggest that the Religious Right's efforts are paying off handsomely. DECAY AND CORRUPTION. The Right's task has been made easier by the corruption, arrogance, and absence of fresh ideas displayed by the top leadership of Hawai`i's Democratic Party. They and their well-connected friends have coasted on the party's dominance for 40 years, and do not grasp the public's desire for change. The major sweep of Republicans in the 1994 federal elections was preceded by the public's disillusionment with a Democratic Congress. For years, national polls showed a steady decline of public confidence with political leaders and Congress in particular. By 1993 huge majorities expressed the belief that Congress was doing a poor job and that public officials represent "special interests" over the "public interest." Sound familiar? This disillusionment with the ruling party showed up in our own 1994 election, when nearly two-thirds of the voters cast their ballots against Democrat Party standard-bearer Ben Cayetano (who won only a slight plurality in a four-person race). In 1996, several of the more liberal Democrat legislators (and one liberal Republican) who were targeted by the Religious Right were defeated. To the people of Hawai`i, Democratic leaders seem arrogant, self-serving, and beholden to special interests. Fights over the Convention Center site-selection and the high-three pension perks that enriches long-term legislators, the failure to reform automobile insurance rates, and the power displayed by United Public Employee's union leader Gary Rogrigues, display the Democrats at their worst. Neither Democratic legislative leaders nor the Governor seem to understand the fundamental forces causing Hawai`i's economic downturn, or what to do about them. Hawai`i's economy is at a cross-roads, as its sugar and pineapple plantations close down, its military bases shrink, and its main economic engine — the tourism industry — faces many challenges after years of easy hyper-growth. Hawai`i's unique island culture and natural beauty is also rapidly disappearing. While debate goes on among businesspeople, community activists, ordinary citizens, and a few government leaders, Democratic kingpins seem bewildered and paralyzed. Their responses have been unimaginative. They have slashed funding — the good with the bad — and passed minor bills that reflect token adjustments. They have tinkered with budget accounting by raiding special funds and reserves. They have pumped up the economy with $1 billion of state bonds for construction and given $10s of millions to the Hawai`i Visitor and Convention Bureau. This is Cayetano's third year as governor with a legislature controlled by Democrats. Yet there is no sign that State government has been streamlined, "reinvented" or made more efficient. The governor himself is perceived as someone who lacks a clear vision, who knows only how to react to problems. In sum, the Democrats have failed to come up with even the semblance of a coherent program to alter the form and function of state government itself, let alone implemented one. VOTERS ARE NOT ON AUTOMATIC ANYMORE. Hawai`i's political landscape has altered from what it was years ago. Many Mainland-born voters have settled here who are independents or conservative — their impact is heaviest on the Neighbor Islands, where the Republicans are already strongest. Newcomers do not share plantation-era experiences, the historical roots of the Democrat takeover in 1954. The passage of time has also affecting Island-born voters. Old-time party loyalists are literally dying off. Their children, having grown up better off, in an era dominated by Reagan influenced pro-business, anti-government economic values, are more conservative. Note the victory of stridently independent Peter Carlisle over well Party-connected Democrat David Arakawa in the 1996 Honolulu Prosecutor's race. Or the near defeat of liberal Democrat Neal Abercrombie by ultra-conservative and Mainland-bred Orson Swindle. Many young people are so alienated that they don't bother to vote. PILING ON. The crumbling of the Democratic Party has already provided fertile grounds for the Religious Right to exploit. In the `96 election they helped defeat former Judiciary Chair Senator Rey Graulty and liberal Representatives Jim Shon, Len Pepper, Annelle Amaral, Devon Nekoba, Eve Anderson, and challenger Jackie Young. With the anti same-sex Constitutional amendment on the ballot, the national anti-gay rights movement will supply even more funds and organizing assistance to mobilize conservative Hawai`i voters in `98. THE RIGHTIST BACKLASH. The Religious Right has hysterically condemned Hawai`i's court decisions granting marriage licenses to same-sex couples. As Pat Robertson, founder of the Christian Coalition, said on his nationwide television show, "The 700 Club" (12/4/97): "This goes against the foundation of the Judeo-Christian civilization, that has undergirded Western civilization and our entire moral order." He goes on: I want to point out as strong as I can, you must read the 18th Chapter of the Book of Leviticus, the law of Moses, Chapter 18. God said "for these things shall a land vomit out its inhabitants." Vomit them out. And the things that were described are the things that are happening in America. Adultery. Sacrificing children to the God of pleasure, to Molech. Homosexuality. Bestiality. Incest. These things, he said were so repulsive that the very land itself, will vomit you out. There is no way the wrath of God is going to be stayed over America if we continue to violate his laws. It's just the way it is. It has been in time-honored Scriptures and all of our customs and traditions say that this thing is an abomination and if it's allowed to continue, our nation is on the slippery slope to destruction. We've got to do something about it. For everybody, if you like the life you lead in America, you want to be opposed to this kind of thing. Jay Sekulow, head of Pat Robertson's legal arm, the American Center for Law and Justice (ACLJ), adds: "We have got to mobilize very quickly here. Our Family Life Project, our state chapters are getting up and operating. I was hoping we'd have 30 months or so to get these 50 state chapters operating, we've got to do it immediately and we're going to have to litigate this in every single state." THE RIGHT KNOWS HOW TO WIN ELECTIONS. Its inflammatory rhetoric and well-honed fundraising capabilities enable the Right to pour millions of dollars into local campaigns. It wouldn't cost much to have a major impact on our elections. You can run a decent House campaign for under $20,000; a Senate race for $75,000. If the Right were to go after half of the Democrat House seats (22 at $20,000 = $440,000) and half of the Democrat Senate seats open in 1998 (12 x $75,000 = $900,000), that equals dumping only a million and half dollars into State races. Last year out-of-state Religious Righters poured $500,000 into Colorado to promote an extremist "parental rights" amendment to the Colorado Constitution. Imagine how easily they can raise $2 million from the Mainland alone to "defeat" the same-sex marriage threat in Hawai`i. Besides a well-financed and slick media campaign, the new missionaries will work as efficiently, if less visibly, through local churches. They will host coffee hours, district mailings, and organized doorknocking and telephoning, to identify, register, and reinforce pro-amendment voters. (Remember half of Hawai`i's eligible voters do not normally vote.) With this kind of money and campaign muscle placed at their disposal, conservative challengers can be enticed to enter races they never thought winnable before. PART II CAN DEMOCRATIC LEGISLATORS SURVIVE? Incumbent Democrats and moderates of other parties will find it difficult to stand up to a conservative juggernaut, especially one that channels discontent into a simplistic mean-spirited, rightwing populism. As a rule, legislative candidates run pretty much on their own. They must raise their own funds and enlist their own campaign workers. For this reason labor union endorsements are invaluable. But a lot of money and manpower will be drawn into the races for Governor and federal Senate and House seats. Furthermore, the Democratic Party is fragmented. Two networks of old-time big players are competing for power; Cayetano is linked to the old Ariyoshi's crowd, while Harris is tied up with Waihe`e supporters. A third, liberal "grassroots" faction drawing largely on old Rainbow Coalition and Democratic Movement activists, has become dispirited by Cayetano's budget cuts, absence of innovation, and closed style of decision-making, yet remains skeptical of Harris and his allies. Some "grassroots Democrats" — who still hold dear to the old Democratic Party ideals of economic and social justice that characterized it when the party captured the state in 1954 — wish they could recapture the public's imagination. This is unlikely. Few voters seem enthusiastic about President Clinton, cloaked in his Dick Morris-engineered "centrist" mantle, embedded in the stench of the multiple-million-dollar campaign funding scandal, and Whitewater wheeling-and-dealings. Public relations experts are already massaging Ben Cayetano's image as the `98 campaign unfolds. His handlers may even get him to mouth a "vision" statement and bring forth a well-throughout legislative package next year. But the truth will win out — the Emperor has no clothes. Although Cayetano ran as an "outsider" in `94, he can't play the White Knight reformer card again. He has already raised $2 million dollars for his `98 run from the usual big business and construction industry executives. And there isn't much intellectual creativity in that crowd, just a shopping list of "here's what I'd like to have government do for my company." The liberals themselves have no real answer to Hawai`i's economy plight either. Statist 1960s big government solutions have been discredited. The recent Forbes magazine article which attacked "The People's Republic of Hawai`i" — though written from an ultra-conservative slant — did properly identify a top-down mentality that dominates the thinking of many in government. The sad truth is that there exists a vacuum of intellectual leadership in state government. Bright activists and young people have abandoned the Democratic Party and politics in general. Too often I've heard potential recruits say: "these guys really don't listen." While liberals did rally in `96 to help elect Susanne Chun Oakland over old-power-player Senator Milton Holt, they failed to support a number of vulnerable legislators who fell victim to rightist wrath. Honolulu Mayor Jeremy Harris is angling to be seen as the Democrat's savior. If he were to run for governor in 1998, he would inject new life into the party. He is capable of articulating a coherent plan for dealing with a host of Hawai`i's problems that present elected officials seem befuddled by. He has demonstrated administrative skills and a talent for building consensus. But Harris, in the end, will see to his political career first. Were he to run for governor, it is unlikely he would take on the Religious Right. He wants their votes. CAN WE BUILD A COALITION TO FIGHT THE RIGHT? The Religious Right has been defeated in several recent Mainland elections. But it took a heroic effort by a network of informed and committed citizens to win. In San Diego County, California, in 1990, 56 right-wing candidates swept into office. Leaders of the Christian Coalition had joined forces with other Religious Right groups and individuals to recruit and elect a slate of like-minded candidates. They fielded 90 candidates for state legislative seats and positions on hospital planning boards, city councils, water districts, and, most significantly, school boards. Nearly two-thirds of the rightists won. In the aftermath, an eclectic coalition of grassroots organizations came together. Whatever their differences, and party affiliations, they shared the belief that their government should be moderate and inclusive rather than extremist. For the 1992 election, a Clearinghouse group compiled a voter guide that identified issues, positions and backgrounds for all candidates. A grassroots campaign group, the Community Coalition Network (CCN) recruited and supported moderate candidates. This mobilization of liberal and moderate voters resulted in the defeat of San Diego's rightists. In Colorado, in 1993, politically active groups created the Colorado Freedom Network in response to initiatives and legislative measures instigated by the right. The Freedom Network grew to include more than 30 groups, including the Colorado Council of Churches, the Anti-Defamation League, Equality Colorado, People For the American Way, the American Civil Liberties Union, Colorado Alliance to Restore Equality, Colorado Education Association, Moderate Voters Project, Colorado Republicans for Choice, Citizens Project, and the Interfaith Consortium for Pluralism. They defeated many rightist measures. In 1996, more than 140 Colorado organizations united under the banner of the Protect Our Children Coalition to oppose Amendment 17, the so-called "parental rights" initiative, which was exposed to be a radical measure advanced by far-righters. Although out-of-state right-wing groups poured $500,000 into the campaign, once again a mobilized and informed electorate rejected the ultra-conservatives. Similarly, in Oregon, a broadbased coalition succeeded, in 1992, in defeating "Initiative 9," an act sponsored by the right which sought to repeal state civil rights laws protecting gays and lesbians. Can Hawai`i's liberals and moderates come together to replicate the successes of San Diego, Colorado, and Oregon in beating back the Right? If so, a coalition of dedicated citizens must come together to: *identify allies and common goals and concerns shared by various constituencies; *craft a written set of principles to inform the community about moderate and progressive perspectives; *research the rightist candidates' full range of beliefs and publicize their extremist philosophy to voters; *establish an endorsement process to help recruit, identify and support the single strongest candidate in multi-candidate races; *help qualified candidates get their message out to voters; and *learn how to run successful political campaigns. Will a multi-partisan community coalition come together to fight the Religious Right in 1998? I'm not optimistic. Democratic stalwarts are heavily burdened with their attachments to a decaying party apparatus. Voters are increasingly angry with politicians lacking vision and solutions. Many are ready for change. This happened in the 1992 federal elections and in some of our own 1996 legislative races where opposition was mounted. Old regimes are collapsing all around the world. Today we see Mexico's PRI party, born in revolution and in power for 68 years, crumbling rapidly. Hawai`i's own Democratic Party, born too in a ballot-box revolution, has ruled for 40 years. It is an old cripple about to take its last fall. PART III WHAT'S NEXT? HAWAI`I 2000 Perhaps the Democrats needs a purging — though unfortunately some of the better ones are likely to be kicked out of office. Perhaps the Religious Right will openly take over Hawai`i Republican Party, as it has done in many Mainland states. Perhaps moderates need to be outraged when our own Republican-style "Contract with Hawai`i" translates cliches about helping business and cutting back government into bills that really advantage big corporations, off-shore investors, land developers, and the well-off, while weakening environmental protection, workers' rights, civil liberties, social services, Native Hawaiian rights, etc. For the last 40 years most important decisions have been made by the powerholders in the back rooms. With the Old-Boy network in disarray, perhaps a more open form of policy-making can emerge. We must solve some crucial issues. HYPER-GROWTH OR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT? Today we are being bombarded with the idea that the solution to Hawai`i's current economic difficulties is "more growth," which will restore the economic boom of the 1980s. The Governor, the tourism industry, large corporations, construction industry and real estate brokers and building unions, are pushing the "need" to further develop Waikiki and Honolulu's downtown waterfront, to expand tourism projects and shopping malls on the Neighbor Islands, to increase business links to rapidly growing Asian economies. At best, to become a mid-Pacific Hong Kong. However, many citizens recognize that continued hyper-growth will destroy what is left of Hawai`i's beautiful environment and social fabric. Already our environment has been degraded by urbanization, sprawling subdivisions, and shopping malls and resorts that have resulted in a loss of green space, overcrowding, scarce water, and pollution. Already our economy creates mostly low-paying jobs servicing tourism, while burdening average residents with low wages, high taxes, expensive housing, and a cost-of-living 30 percent higher than on the Mainland. Already many young Islanders find themselves forced to move away in order to find decent paying jobs and affordable housing. Already the Islands' once unique mixture of Polynesian and Asian cultures is being engulfed by the values of competition, individualism, and consumerism; what some call the "Los Angeles-ization" of Hawai`i. Alternatives to Hawai`i becoming an over-developed tourist Mecca are being advanced by diverse groups on all islands, who are promoting what they call "sustainable development." Solution that protects both the Islands' quality of life and economic survival are being voiced by eco-tourism proponents, Hawaiians wanting to settle on the land, small farmers and taro growers wanting help in growing and marketing diversified agriculture, solar energy and recycled materials advocates, and supporters of community-base economic development and local owned small businesses. SETTING SHARED GOALS AND BENCHMARKS. If we don't want the power brokers alone to determine our fate, concerned citizens must work together to create partnerships with government that address these issues. The state of Oregon gives one example of a new form of public/ private cooperation that we might want to imitate. Seven years ago, Oregon's governor asked groups of people from all over the state to advise officials on the state's future. After a lengthy process, the Oregon Shines groups agreed that by the year 2010, Oregon should achieve three strategic goals: * we must create a highly educated and prepared work force, * we must maintain the state's natural environment and uncongested way of life, and * we must strive for a diverse, internationally oriented economy that pays high wages. Soon after the three goals were announced in 1989, the state legislature created a non-partisan citizens panel, chaired by the governor, to craft "measurable indicators" of progress. That is, how do we know concretely if we are achieving our goals? After extensive citizen involvement and public review, the panel — called the Oregon Progress Board — released its first 158 Benchmarks in 1991. Within six months, the legislature unanimously adopted these measures as a basis for crafting its budget. "Benchmarks" focus on measuring specific outcomes in dozens of specific areas that relate to accomplishing the three main objectives for the state. For example, is water quality improving or declining?; are schools and streets safer or more dangerous?; how many people receive good medical care, or are unemployed or forced to work part-time?; what's the high school dropout rate and how many go on to college?; how many new businesses are starting up, or going bankrupt?; is housing becoming more affordable or less? Oregon's visioning, goalsetting and benchmarking processes have succeeded in providing a clear framework for engaging people both inside and outside government in the pursuit of well-defined objectives. Each of the benchmarks is highly specific and sets targets for the state to achieve by the year 2010. HAWAI`I'S OWN. Ka Ala Hoku (Hawaiian for "charting the course") is a local organization composed of citizens from all walks of life who have been trying to establish a similar goalsetting process in Hawai`i. Depressingly — but typical for Hawai`i — they have found little support from top leaders. But perhaps with the political restructuring brought on by the debacle of 1998, new leaders will emerge who are committed to establishing a participatory process involving many sectors of society, which would reach agreement upon common goals for Hawai`i's future. "Benchmarks" could then be identified that would tell legislators and government officials where to allocate resources. This results-oriented framework would become an accountability mechanism that elected officials and voters could use to evaluate the performance of state, county, and community efforts. Today we are floundering and caught in political gridlock. Ka Ala Hoku already is bringing together diverse constituencies - including young people — who are identifying common values for Hawai`i, setting objectives, and taking responsibilities for seeing that they get accomplished. Collaboration between citizens, private business, government, and non-profit groups offers a mechanism for creatively dealing with Hawai`i's future as we enter the 21st century. Ka Ala Hoku can be seen as a large canoe that attracts many paddlers, who agree to head in the same direction together.