Date: Wed, 2 Feb 2000 18:25:53 -0500 From: Kevin Ivers Subject: MEMO TO LOG CABIN MEMBERS: New Hampshire and Beyond LCR POLITICAL MEMORANDUM [Excerpted Below - For Full text visit the LCR Web Site at http://www.lcr.org ] TO: LOG CABIN MEMBERS FROM: Rich Tafel, Executive Director New Hampshire and Beyond February 2, 2000 The results from New Hampshire have huge significance to those of us in Log Cabin Republicans. It crushed an old conventional wisdom within the GOP that has largely kept us from the White House for a decade, that Republicans need to run to the right in the primaries and then run back to the middle in the general election. It was built on an assumption that the American people are largely uninformed, have short memories and are generally dumb enough to fall for it. Steve Forbes bought into this conventional wisdom more than anyone, transforming himself from the Wall Street Republican of 1996 to a fire-breathing social conservative for the 2000 primaries. Even with over $30 million of his own money, the message didn't take and he did far worse in New Hampshire this time. Gary Bauer, who has built his entire career on gay bashing and other extreme-right activism, scored lower than "Others" in the New Hampshire balloting. Alan Keyes, another extreme right candidate whose only strength is in his lungs, got 8% of the vote. But the real shocker was, of course, the invincible George W. Bush's nearly 20 point loss to John McCain. Looking more closely at the results, they grow more stunning. McCain won 114,000 votes, compared with 75,000 for Vice President Al Gore and only 71, 000 for Bush, who had the GOP establishment in the state locked up. While running very strong among independent voters, McCain also beat Bush among registered Republicans. He beat Bush among pro-life and pro-choice voters, and won all age groups, all income categories and even won among self-identified evangelical born-again Christians. Ironically, among all demographic groups, Bush's only core constituency in national polls has been Republicans who want to beat Al Gore, or Republicans who believed Bush is going to win. So much for that thinking now.... [END OF EXCERPT - For Full Text visit http://www.lcr.org ] Log Cabin Republicans Kevin Ivers (202) 347-5306 phone Director of Public Affairs (202) 347-5224 fax http://www.lcr.org